The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) could keep reshaping U.S. crypto asset regulation even if the Clarity Act fails to clear the Senate before the August recess, according to a Bernstein research note published Monday, which The Block reported.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the bill’s failure would likely weigh on crypto markets in the near term, but argued the direction of U.S. crypto regulation is no longer tied exclusively to Congress. Both agencies are already building a more coordinated framework through Project Crypto, and Bernstein expects that work to continue regardless of whether the legislation advances.
The view lands as the Senate faces limited time to consider the market structure bill before its scheduled Aug. 7 recess. Groundwork is already visible, as the two agencies have issued a joint interpretation clarifying how securities laws apply to crypto assets while developing rules on token offerings, broker-dealer custody, and trading venues.
Project Crypto Expected to Remain The Primary Regulatory Vehicle
Project Crypto is likely to stay the central platform for SEC and CFTC coordination if the Clarity Act stalls, Bernstein said. The analysts expect continued interpretive guidance offering clearer digital asset classifications and setting expectations for decentralized finance and self-custody, along with an innovation exemption that would temporarily shield newly issued tokens from securities treatment.
The initiative took shape this year when SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig launched a joint harmonization push to align oversight and reduce jurisdictional overlap. It was followed in May by an effort in which Selig backed rules to exempt non-custodial crypto software developers from broker registration. Bernstein also expects support to extend to tokenized real-world assets, perpetual futures linked to those assets, and prediction markets, areas it believes will keep drawing attention irrespective of the bill’s outcome.
Senate Faces Narrowing Legislative Window
Bernstein called the coming week the Senate’s remaining opportunity to pass what it described as the most consequential crypto market structure bill. Introduced by Representatives French Hill and Glenn Thompson in May 2025, the Clarity Act passed the House 294-134 before stalling in the Senate, with debate over its 2026 outlook intensifying since.
Galaxy Research last month lowered its estimated odds of passage in 2026 to 30%, and Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego submitted a revised ethics compromise to the White House to build additional bipartisan support.
Selig echoed the firm’s concern in a Fox Business interview last month, warning regulators would ultimately write the industry’s rules if Congress does not act. He criticized the existing patchwork of state-level regulations as unnecessary complexity for businesses operating across the country. Bernstein still views the Clarity Act as the preferred path to long-term certainty, though its analysts believe the SEC and CFTC can keep expanding the federal framework through coordinated action if Congress cannot deliver the bill before the recess.
