The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast slightly on Wednesday, crediting robust AI-related investment for cushioning the world economy against a persistent energy shock tied to the Middle East conflict.
Global GDP is now projected to grow 2.9% in 2026, up from the 2.8% forecast in June.
The 2027 outlook was revised down to 3.0%, from 3.1% previously.
G20 inflation is expected to reach 4.1% this year, up from the 4.0% June estimate, before climbing further to 3.6% in 2027, a sharp upward revision from the 3.1% projected three months ago.
Core inflation across the G20 is seen at 2.7% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
AI investment cushions the blow, for now
The Paris-based organisation said continued strength in AI-related investment has helped sustain global production, trade and growth even as energy markets remain strained.
It expects an assumed decline in energy prices in 2027, as supply recovers, to help stabilise growth further out.
But the OECD flagged real risks to that outlook.
“Growth prospects could also weaken if long-term sovereign bond yields rise further or if returns on AI-related investment fall short of expectations, potentially triggering a repricing of financial assets,” the organisation said in its report.
Persistently high energy prices, weaker real income growth and higher interest rates were also cited as factors that could temper growth in several economies.
Country-level picture is uneven
The US economy is now expected to grow 2.2% in 2026, an upgrade from June, before easing to 2.1% in 2027, with heavy AI-related investment offsetting weaker consumer spending.
US inflation is projected at 3.6% in 2026, easing to 2.6% in 2027.
China’s growth is seen holding at 4.5% this year before slowing to 4.2% in 2027.
Canada’s outlook worsened, with 2026 growth cut to 0.9% from 1.2%, and 2027 lowered to 1.3% from 1.7%, reflecting new US tariffs on Canadian exports.
Oil slides as diplomacy gains momentum
The energy backdrop shaping the OECD’s forecast shifted further on Wednesday.
Crude oil traded near $91 a barrel, extending losses into a fifth straight session, after President Trump said US officials had “a very good meeting” with Iranian envoys and that there was “a lot of momentum” toward a deal.
Addressing the UN General Assembly, Trump said he faced a “big decision” on whether to pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran or take more forceful action, adding he believed a deal would likely follow the US midterm elections.
A senior Iranian official said Tehran’s proposal, including a resumption of talks to permanently end hostilities, has been formally conveyed to Washington.
Japan’s Kyodo News had earlier reported that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US lifted its blockade on Iranian ports.
Separately, Saudi Arabia has begun preparations to restart its East-West pipeline, halted after drone attacks earlier this month, with exports potentially resuming later this week.
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