After trading rangebound between $65,000 – $70,000 over the past weeks, Bitcoin price momentum returned on Friday as macro pressures cooled.
Broader market sentiment has improved from levels seen earlier in the month, and the total crypto market cap has also stabilised above the $2.5 trillion mark after falling sharply from over $3.3 trillion in January.
The crypto fear and greed index has moved close towards neutral levels at 40, up over 10 points from last week.
All of the data points to a return of risk sentiment, which is helping bulls solidify Bitcoin’s standing above the psychological support level at $70,000.
This, in turn, could help fuel Bitcoin’s return towards the six-figure mark.
However, that would be contingent on a number of technical and macroeconomic catalysts, as the flagship crypto may not be out of the woods just yet.
The bullish case for Bitcoin price
As the overall crypto market sentiment improves, a few major catalysts are starting to emerge that could be the spark Bitcoin needs to decisively break out of the bearish trend.
First, institutional demand for Bitcoin has returned, especially as the flagship crypto has shown resilience during these times of heightened geopolitical tension.
Bitcoin has performed better than other macro assets since the start of the conflict events in Iran, which could help it retain this digital gold status during its recovery rally.
After several weeks of outflows, spot Bitcoin ETF products like BlackRock’s IBIT have finally started seeing renewed demand, with over $115 million in net inflows over the past two weeks.
This back-to-back positive flow is a strong sign of institutional conviction and is now helping strengthen retail sentiments as well.
Simultaneously, “whale” Bitcoin wallets holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have resumed aggressive accumulation according to data from CryptoQuant.
Second, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable after the US CPI data was released earlier in the week, even after the report showed inflation holding slightly above targets.
While that itself can help stabilise investors, United States President Donald Trump has doubled down on his public demands for rate cuts.
Although economic data like the CPI and subsequently Friday’s PCE, which came in just below some analyst expectations, and other sticky labour figures all seemingly point to the Fed holding steady against rate cuts, Trump has been calling for immediate reductions, which is typically bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the recent surge in oil prices has cooled after briefly hitting $100 highs.
The cost per barrel has dropped, which has calmed fears of runaway pipeline inflation and is working in favour of Bitcoin.
Lastly, there’s been some notable developments around crypto-related regulations in the US.
On March 11, the SEC and the CFTC signed a historic Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to launch a Joint Crypto Oversight Framework in direct response to the jurisdictional clarity demanded by the stalled Clarity Act.
This agreement reduces the risk of conflicting enforcement actions and has signalled to investors that the regulatory environment in the US is improving, and that is becoming a major tailwind for Bitcoin’s recovery rally.
Bitcoin technicals remain strong
In terms of technicals, Bitcoin price has successfully broken above $70,000 multiple times over the past week, and this means this short-term resistance zone may be gradually weakening.
This persistent pressure against the $70,000 level suggests that the overhead supply is being absorbed by steady buy-side interest.
Over the past month, Bitcoin has traded consistently above its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which has historically marked the price bottom in past cycles.
This moving average acts as a definitive line in the sand for long-term bullish structural integrity.
Last time this occurred in 2020, Bitcoin rebounded by more than 1,000% over the following year.
Meanwhile, the previous year saw a bounce of over 300% from similar technical support levels. See below.
BTC/USD 1-week price chart. Source: Tradingview.
As such, a sustained rebound from the current support levels could send the BTC price toward $100,000 in the coming months as the market moves into a discovery phase.
The relative strength index (RSI) is currently hovering near oversold levels on the daily timeframe, which further increases the chances of a recovery.
When the RSI sits at these levels while the price holds major support, it often precedes a significant trend reversal to the upside.
As long as Bitcoin maintains its current trajectory above the $73,500 to $75,000 resistance zone and invalidates the Death Cross as discussed before, the chances of a sustained rally remain intact.
More historical patterns in favor of Bitcoin
On X, crypto analyst AO drew attention to the behavior of the US10Y × CN10Y yield product, an indicator that tracks the combined movement of US and Chinese 10-year bond yields and its relationship with Bitcoin’s market cycles.
According to the model, applying a Stochastic RSI oscillator to this metric has historically highlighted moments when macro liquidity conditions begin turning favorable for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
When the oscillator crosses upward from deeply oversold territory, the signal has frequently appeared close to major BTC market bottoms.
Historical data shows similar signals emerging ahead of several major bull cycles.
A bullish crossover in 2013 came just before Bitcoin entered a rally that eventually produced gains of roughly 8,700%.
Comparable setups also appeared prior to the 2017 bull run, the 2020 to 2021 cycle, and the recovery phase that began in 2023.
BTC/USD and US10Y*CN10Y Stoch RSI weekly. Source: AO on X.
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