Bitcoin BTC fell nearly 3% over the past 24 hours as investors reduced exposure ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes.
The top cryptocurrency was trading at $82,947, slipping below the $83,000 level.
The pullback followed another rejection near $87,000, shifting attention toward lower technical support despite continued ETF inflows and accumulation among tracked Bitcoin wallets.
The minutes could influence expectations for further monetary tightening after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its latest meeting.
FOMC minutes could shift rate-hike expectations
According to CME FedWatch figures, the probability of an October rate increase is 19.4%, suggesting markets were assigning a greater likelihood to a pause at that meeting.
However, the minutes could change those expectations by revealing how strongly policymakers favored additional tightening and how they assessed inflation risks.
A more hawkish discussion could increase expectations for an earlier hike, potentially adding pressure to Bitcoin. A more patient tone could ease some of the uncertainty weighing on risk appetite.
The document is scheduled for release at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. Bitcoin’s decline ahead of the announcement suggests caution, although price action alone cannot establish investors’ motivations.
Bitcoin-linked ETFs continued to attract capital even as BTC struggled to overcome $87,000.
The ETFs recorded $241 million in net inflows last week, followed by approximately $29 million across Monday and Tuesday.
September inflows totaled $2.65 billion, representing a 23% decline from the previous month while remaining firmly positive.
Those figures indicate continued demand through investment products.
However, positive ETF flows do not necessarily prevent short-term price declines when selling elsewhere in the market outweighs incoming capital.
The pace and consistency of future inflows will help determine whether institutional demand can support another advance.
Santiment data showed wallets holding between 1 and 100,000 BTC adding approximately 20,000 Bitcoin during September, valued at around $1.6 billion.
The broad wallet range includes holders of different sizes, so the figures should not be interpreted solely as purchases by the largest whales.
Nevertheless, the reported balance growth suggests accumulation among tracked holders during the recent market advance.
It provides a supportive signal without confirming their investment intentions or guaranteeing a continuation of the rally.
Bitcoin technical outlook: $81,000 could test the recovery case
On the four-hour chart, resistance around $87,000 has repeatedly limited Bitcoin’s upside, leaving the market vulnerable to a deeper retracement.
The daily timeframe shows $81,000 as a potential support zone.
That area also aligns with the four-hour chart’s 200-period exponential moving average, increasing its technical significance.
A strong rebound from the zone would support the argument that the pullback is occurring within an ongoing uptrend.
Under that scenario, $87,000 would remain a hurdle before a possible move toward $90,000.
However, a visit to $81,000 would not automatically establish a buying opportunity.
The strength of the reaction, subsequent price structure, and market response to the Fed minutes would determine whether the recovery scenario gains support.
For now, Bitcoin’s outlook rests on whether sustained demand can absorb the pullback and defend the proposed support zone as monetary-policy expectations evolve.
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